Going to year 2009

Politics in South Africa: Positives and Prospects Opinions from the Chairperson

The year 2008 has the potential of going down in history books as the year that changed the political climate in post apartheid South Africa. This is so for various reasons. First, year 2008 precedes year 2009 when the nation will be expected to go for its fourth national and provincial elections. Year 2009 will be interesting merely for the fact that this will be the year that opposition parties are expected to have a real chance of dethroning the African National Congress (ANC). Some opposition party leaders like Rev. Kenneth Meshoe of the African Christian Democratic Party (ACDP) are already saying in interviews that the ANC will not even get 50% of the vote in 2009 let alone the two thirds majority they held. Meshoe is so convinced of this that he even tells the nation that he is laying his head on the block for this to happen.

Second, parties that have been or that have fashioned themselves in the past as opposition parties like the Democratic Alliance (DA) have turned 180 degrees from being opposition parties to branding themselves as parties of government. The DA tells us that it plans to be the ruling party in South Africa by 2014. This means one of two things – that they really fancy their chances of dethroning the ANC or it was just a marketing stint on their part.

Third, the Independent Elections Commission of South Africa (IEC) following the registrations of the 8th and 9th of November 2008 have already indicated to the nation that there were more people than ever who registered to vote in 2009. They attribute some of this turn out to the Obama effect in the United States particularly the interest shown by the young people who have been known to be apathetic. They predict that the numbers will increase running to the 2009 elections.

Last, political parties as expected have been maneuvering in anticipation of 2009. The ANC officially split with the splinter faction forming what is called Congress of the People (COPE). COPE has made its intentions clear that it wants to challenge the ANC for power in 2009, and that it is prepared to form alliances with other political formations. The Pan Africanist Congress of Azania (PAC) has also split into various factions of late. There is the African Peoples Convention (APC) led by Themba Goni and now more recently there is the Pan Africanist Movement (PAM) led by Thami Platjie.

Now, these are some of the developments in the political scene in 2008. These developments have been largely viewed as positives for democracy by many who argue that it was always unhealthy for the ruling ANC to hold 80% of parliamentarians in parliament. Some say this power made the ANC arrogant and even ignorant to the needs of the electorate. For me the real question is how much of an influence will these developments have in the outcome of the 2009 elections. How much will they affect the ANC.?

The ANC leadership has largely welcomed the emergence of COPE as a political party in the political scene (although they have a problem with the name). They have told the nation that we are living in a multi party democracy where people are free to establish and belong to political parties. They have further kept a strong face and a united front in saying that they do not think COPE will pose a serious threat for them in 2009. Whether COPE poses a threat to the ANC or not is not material to me because I think that is to a certain extent at least a given, what I am interested in is how much of a threat they pose.

2009 will be a challenge for the ANC but more so for COPE. If COPE has a political life in South African politics then it will be forced to do well in the 2009 elections. They will have to get a substantial percentage of the vote so to make their mark. If they fail to do this then they stand a chance of being another minority party on the fringes of the political scene. The disgruntled ANC members they have attracted thus far will soon vanish into thin air, either back to the ANC or to wherever.

It is most interesting that opposition political parties have welcomed and appear to support COPE. I guess they do this because they are also tired of the ANC’s domination. But the reality is that COPE will also dent on their support base. There are voters in South Africa who are not loyal to any party and their tendency had been to vote, if they do vote, objectively so to spread their vote evenly between and amongst the opposition parties. The arrival of COPE increases the pool of parties but yet decreases the voters who are available for those parties.

The DA under Tony Leon used to call this the splitting of the opposition. I agree with that assertion and I go further to say having more political parties available for less voting voters does not only split the opposition but also protects the ruling party because the few voting voters are also loyal voters who will vote for the ruling party as they have always done. The many people who show an interest in registering to vote still have to actually vote. It is possible to get a situation where there is a high registration turn out but a less voter turn out.

Another question that I ponder is the impact the branding of the DA will have in 2009 and perhaps 2014 as they say. There is no doubt in my mind that the DA is still the old wine we all know but in a new bottle. The sun rising over the rainbow as per their new logo represents in my view what they have always stood for. It is common cause that the DA has always been seen by many black South Africans as nothing but a white party. In this branding the DA is trying very hard to present themselves as a South African political party that can be a political home for both black and white South Africans. Whether many black South Africans will be convinced is yet to be seen but what puzzles my mind is that if the colors of the logo are to resonate some sorts of a message then why choose a rainbow. A rainbow has many colors of the spectrum but not the color black.

The political scene is well laid that is clear, but how the parties and the electorate will choose to play is far from being clear. Perhaps we should all wait for 2009 to see if Meshoe has correctly laid down his head on that chopping block. My overall feeling is that the ANC will remain in government come 2009 but as to how much of a margin that I do not know nor am I prepared to lay my head on a chopping block for. Provinces like the Western Cape and Kwazulu Natal will continue to be hotly contested. 2009 will come and go and life will go on irrespective of the outcomes.


Thulani Nkosi
Chairperson and Co-head of the Education Cluster at UBPA, 2008